Report on China's Electric Power Development 2018: In the next Three Years, Power Supply and Demand Situation is Comprehensive Tightening in China

Category：Industry News         Release Time：2019-09-05         Number of Browse：0

On June 18, Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute held a press conference for Report on China's Electric Power Development 2018 (hereinafter referred to as "the Report"). The Report predicts that under the premise of full transmission by the cross-province and cross-region transmission channels which have been clearly defined at present, if the supply of power is not considered in time, the power supply and demand situation of most provinces and regions in China will become comprehensive tightening in the next three years. Among them, 16 provinces need to increase power supply, and the preliminary work of a batch of thermal power projects needs to be started in time. East China, Central China, South China and other areas need to further expand the size of external power.

The Report points out that China's power supply and demand will face comprehensive tighten situation during 2019-2021. Considering only the power source that can be put into production at present which have been clear and on the premise that the arrangement of cross-province and cross-region power flow can be implemented, the supply and demand of power in Hebei Province, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, Anhui Province, Henan Province, Hubei Province, Hunan Province, Jiangxi Province, Shaanxi Province, Guangdong Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Hainan Province will remain slightly tight or tight in the next three years. Power supply and demand in Liaoning Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Shandong Province, Shanghai City, Fujian Province, Sichuan Province, Chongqing City, Gansu Province, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Yunnan Province and Guizhou Province will gradually change from loose or basically balanced to slightly tight or tight in the next three years. Power supply and demand in Hei Longjiang Province, Jilin Province, Beijing City, Tianjin City, Shanxi Province, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province and Tibet Autonomous Region are relatively loose.

The Report shows that high and new technology industry and high-end manufacturing will drive electricity consumption of secondary industries continuing rigid growth, and the rapid development of service industries will still drive the power using by tertiary industries and residents living increasing rapidly in the next three years. In 2019, the whole society's electricity consumption will grow by 5.6% year on year, reaching 7.3 trillion kilowatt-hours; In 2020, the whole society's electricity consumption will increase by 5.0% year-on-year, reaching 7.6 trillion kilowatt-hours; In 2021, the whole society's electricity consumption will increase by 4.7 % year on year, reaching 8.0 trillion kilowatt-hours.

The Report indicates that vigorously developing new energy is still the focus of energy resource side reform. Absorption and utilization of new energy will be the key to guidance of optimizing the layout of development. In the next three years, the China's space for new energy absorption will be about 350 million kilowatts. The "three-north" areas will still have great potential for development and the space for new energy absorption will be about 100 million kilowatts. With the continuous rapid growth of electricity consumption in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and other areas, the red and orange alert is expected to be lifted in the next three years, and there is still potential for large-scale development according to the requirements of fair-price power.

With the introduction of the policy of "responsibility weight of renewable energy and power absorption" ("quota system"), the urgency of new energy development in the Central and Eastern China continues to increase; With the issuance of the policy of "marketized trading on distributed power generation", it is predicted that decentralized wind power and distributed photovoltaic will develop rapidly in Central and Eastern China in the next three years. Under the current conditions of peak load regulation capacity and grid, the space of offshore wind power absorption in the next three years will be about 19 million kilowatts.

The Report states at the same time that outside transmission size of southwestern hydropower will continue to expand. Southwest hydropower will also newly add more than 30 million kilowatts in cross-province and cross-region allocation capacity.

In terms of transmission channels, the Report points out that the utilization of cross-province and cross-region transmission channels needs to be improved urgently. On the one hand, we should accelerate the construction progress of supporting power resource for Ningdong-Zhejiang, Huaidong-Anhui, Shang Haimiao-Shandong, Jinbei-Jiangsu, West Inner Mongolia-South Tianjin, Yuheng-Weifang, Ximeng-Shandong and other transmission channels. On the other hand, the grid construction of receiving end needs to be strengthened and the power transmission capacity of transmission channels of Jiuquan-Hunan, Hami-Zhengzhou needs to be enhanced. In addition, we should speed up the improvement of marketization pricing mechanism and expand the power transmission size of Zha Lute-Qingzhou transmission channel as soon as possible. It is predicted that China's cross-province and cross-region power transmission size will reach about 290 million kilowatts in 2021.

In the term of reform of the electric power system, the Report indicates that marketized reform of electric power still needs to be further accelerated and expanded. The barrier of marketized trading for electric power still exists. Cross-province and cross-region trading mechanism based on the connection of grid physic must be built urgently to break the cross-province or cross-region trading barriers; Top-level design of spot market has been launched, but spot trading system of electric power remains improved further, and spot trading system of electric power for simulation verification need to be established urgently; Assessment mechanism for incremental power distribution network has been built preliminarily and relevant establishment for planning designing standards has started. But now only 48 business licenses were issued to 320 projects of incremental power distribution network, a large number of principal status of business for incremental power distribution network need to be defined urgently.

Information Source: China Energy News